A confident election prediction is easy to make. A useful forecast gives readers a way to judge it. VotePredictor’s election forecasts and race probabilities cover Senate, House, and governor contests, with links to a methodology explanation and a public track record.
Why look beyond the favorite?
The project presents probabilities rather than simply naming winners. It also shows how forecasts change over time. That gives readers something more informative to follow than a single headline declaring which party is ahead.
The skeptical question
Ask how the model performs across many races, including close contests and misses. A candidate assigned a 70% chance can still lose; one result cannot settle whether a forecasting method is useful. Read the methodology, inspect the historical scoring, and distinguish forecasts published before an election from retrospective exercises. The project’s value is the opportunity to examine those claims, not a promise that it knows the outcome.
Project note: This project is listed in the O’Connor Ventures portfolio. This introduction describes its public website; it is not an independent performance test.